Tom Aspinall has spent UFC 334 fight week mostly quiet. That’s understandable. The last time he shared a cage with Ciryl Gane, at UFC 321 in October 2025, it ended in a no-contest because of eye pokes, and he hasn’t fought since. On Friday he finally weighed in on Gane’s first heavyweight title defense against Josh Hokit. He picked a winner, a method and a window.
“I think Gane’s going to win,” Aspinall told Cloudbet. “I think that ultimately Hokit’s going to tire, and Gane is going to keep him at the end of his punches and kicks.”
Then he got specific. “I would say Ciryl Gane would do a late stoppage by strikes, fourth or fifth round, in my opinion.”
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I’m with him. The detail that makes this pick worth taking seriously is the timeline. Plenty of people will tell you Gane wins. Aspinall told you when, and why it takes that long.
The Guy With the Least Reason to Be Nice
Consider who’s talking. Aspinall is 33, has had several surgeries to repair his eye, and Bloody Elbow reports there’s still no clear date for his return. He recently vacated the heavyweight belt, which is how Gane went from interim titleholder to undisputed champion without throwing a punch. If anybody had an excuse to be petty about Gane this week, it’s the man whose title run got frozen in that UFC 321 cage.
Instead he gave Gane the credit. That’s a fighter’s read, the kind you get from someone who has stood across from both the jab and the kicks. When Aspinall says Gane will keep Hokit “at the end of his punches and kicks,” he’s describing the distance he dealt with personally. I’d trust that more than a betting line.
Hokit’s Run Is Real, and It Has One Problem
None of this means Hokit is a fraud. His run has been absurd. He debuted in the UFC in November 2025, rattled off four straight wins in the promotion, beat Curtis Blaydes and Derrick Lewis along the way, and walks into Saturday undefeated. A win makes him 11-0. Most heavyweights need three years to build that résumé. Hokit did it in roughly one.
Speed cuts both ways, though. This is his first UFC title shot, and championship fights are scheduled for 25 minutes. Aspinall’s whole prediction rests on that clock. He thinks Hokit can hang early and then hit a wall. He doesn’t think Hokit gets blown out in the first round. Picking Rounds 4 and 5 is a bet that the cardio bill comes due.
Aspinall also offered Hokit a path, which I appreciated, because fake-confident picks with zero caveats are worthless. “I can see a way that Hokit can win by just making it ugly and roughing him up a little bit, but I don’t think it’s likely,” he said. That’s the honest version. Hokit’s best night looks like a bar fight. His worst looks like chasing a guy who’s always one step outside his reach.
The outside noise hasn’t helped Hokit’s cause. Bloody Elbow flagged that Joe Rogan expressed concern about Hokit’s sparring footage, saying “His coaches need to tell him.” Sherdog’s Sean Sheehan broke the fight down and still landed on Gane winning. When the former champ, Rogan and the film-study guys all lean the same direction, the underdog had better bring something nobody’s seen.
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Hokit Already Picked His Next Fight
Hokit, for his part, is talking like Saturday’s a formality. At Wednesday’s media day he said he’d be open to Aspinall next, then took a swing at him for signing with boxing promoter Eddie Hearn.
“When I’m champion, anybody can get a fight,” Hokit said. “We’ll see if Aspinall comes back, and we’ll see. I don’t think he wants to come back.”
He kept going. “You signed with Eddie Hearn, Dana’s arch-nemesis. To me, that’s like you’re just trying to get to the money, get a money fight in boxing.”
Look, I love a guy who calls his shot. I love it even more when he backs it up. But calling out a man recovering from eye surgeries, before you’ve beaten the champion in front of you, is a strange choice. It’s like booking the after-party venue before you’ve passed the bar exam. Hokit is 29, unbeaten and clearly dangerous. He’s also staring at five rounds against a heavyweight who makes people miss and then makes them pay for it.
My pick matches Aspinall’s. Gane wins, and it gets ugly early before it gets lopsided late. Hokit has a puncher’s chance in the first two rounds and a tired man’s chance after that. I’ll take Gane by TKO in Round 4, and if that’s how it shakes out on Saturday night, the Hearn jokes are the last thing anyone remembers from Hokit’s week.
